US voters trust Trump more than Harris with economy, FT-Michigan Ross poll shows

Today’s agenda: Tesla’s turnaround; North Korean troops in Russia; commercial property’s moment of truth; the TikTok election; and do FT readers make good UK chancellors?

Good morning. We start with the final pre-US election poll from the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business, which shows Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris as the candidate Americans trust with the economy.

More voters also said they were better off financially under the former president than the current administration, and believed they would also be better off under Trump than Harris.

Why do voters trust Harris less on the economy? The Democratic party has failed to convince voters they are better off now than they were four years ago, despite strong economic growth and low unemployment. Americans still lament the high cost of living left by the surge in inflation in 2022, with more than three-quarters of respondents citing price increases as among their biggest sources of financial stress.

Why it matters: Economic issues such as jobs and the cost of living have been consistently ranked by the survey’s respondents as the “most important” in deciding their vote. The latest results suggest Harris’s economic pitch has run out of momentum in the final stretch of a race where the candidates are neck-and-neck, according to the FT’s poll tracker. One expert said: “If she is going to win the election, she is going to have to win it on other issues.”

But the findings also suggest Harris’s messaging to middle-class voters has made some inroads. More on this and detailed results from the survey here.

• ‘Unhinged’: Harris has accused Trump of seeking “unchecked power” if he wins the White House again, placing what she described as his threat to US democracy at the heart of her closing argument to voters.

• Elon Musk: The US Department of Justice has warned Musk’s political action committee it may be violating federal law after he pledged to award $1mn a day to registered voters who sign a petition.

• A 50-50 America: No other major democracy in the world is anything like as consistently deadlocked, writes Janan Ganesh, and it is a civic disaster.

With less than two weeks to go until election day on November 5, stay updated with our US Election Countdown newsletter. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: The Eurozone, France, Germany, the UK and the US have flash purchasing managers’ indices.

• IMF: The fund’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a press briefing on its Global Policy Agenda.

• France-Lebanon: President Emmanuel Macron will host dozens of senior officials at a conference in Paris to rally aid for its former protectorate.

• Companies: Abrdn, LSEG and Unilever have trading updates, while Anglo American publishes its production report. Barclays, Dow, Hasbro, Nasdaq and Northrop Grumman are among those reporting results. Full list in our Week Ahead newsletter.

Hear directly from the presidents of Kenya and Somalia and other leaders at the FT’s Africa Summit next Tuesday, where they will discuss how to drive sustainable growth across the continent. Register here.

Five more top stories

1. Tesla’s shares rose 12 per cent in after-hours trading, pushed up by higher than expected earnings and a bullish forecast. After a few disappointing quarters, Elon Musk’s company yesterday predicted a “slight growth” in deliveries this year and a big jump in 2025. Here’s more on the turnaround for the electric-vehicle maker.

2. Hundreds of North Korean troops have been filmed at military bases in Russia’s far east, training ahead of what Kyiv and its allies say is a deployment to fight in Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. According to footage from South Korean intelligence, the disguised troops are part of a 12,000-strong force sent to help Russia retake the Kursk region. Here’s what we know about the war’s first foreign army deployment.

3. Exclusive: China’s Hesai plans to sue the US government after the Pentagon put it back on a blacklist of Chinese companies affiliated with the military, its chief executive told the FT. The world’s biggest producer of laser sensors for EVs would join other Chinese tech companies taking to US courts to fight what they say are false accusations.

4. Second-hand fashion site Vinted plans to expand beyond clothes into electronics, books, toys and video games as the profitable Lithuanian start-up seeks to capture more of the booming market for used goods. Its chief executive told the FT that it wanted to focus on “unsexy” areas such as efficient shipping and payments.

5. Kering has warned profits will almost halve this year after sales at its main brand Gucci plunged amid weak demand in China. The French group said yesterday that it expected full-year operating income to drop to about €2.5bn, less than analysts’ forecasts and the lowest level in eight years.

The Big Read

Prices across commercial property, a category that includes shops, offices, hotels and warehouses, have fallen about 20 per cent from their peak in 2022, analysts estimate. But predictions of a crash akin to the one that followed the 2008-10 financial crisis have not materialised. Is the storm over for the battered sector, or is the worst yet to come?

We’re also reading . . . 

• HPS: After years of preparation, the pioneering alternatives firm is on the verge of an initial public offering, a deal or potentially an outright sale to BlackRock.

• Honesty in politics: What if it really is the best policy? Data suggests Americans can handle the truth if politicians are willing to tell it, writes Oren Cass.

• FT Budget Game: Rachel Reeves faces an unenviable task next week in delivering the UK Budget. Fortunately, FT readers have gone before her — with mixed results.

Think you can do better as chancellor? Try your hand at balancing Britain’s spending and debt.

Chart of the day

TikTok is the app of choice for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s online battle for younger voters. Both campaigns have been harnessing irreverent internet culture, memes and slang on the platform to attract Gen Z. Will it work?

Take a break from the news

Without fungi, there would be no bread, wine or cheese, among many other pleasures. But the fact that they are not classified as either plants or animals could be holding back their conservation, writes Anjana Ahuja.