Trump’s tariffs risk global economic recovery, warn policymakers

Today’s agenda: Starmer to speak on Budget; Japan’s unexpected election result; oil prices fall; and Big Read on Trump’s foreign policy

Good morning. We start the week with a warning from top officials gathered for the IMF’s annual meetings with the World Bank: the global economic recovery is at risk of being derailed by an “alarming” lurch towards economic protectionism.

What has caused alarm? The world’s largest economy could undergo a dramatic shift in policy next year if Donald Trump wins the US election. The former president has pledged to impose across-the-board tariffs of 20 per cent on America’s partners, as well as a 60 per cent tax on Chinese imports, while pursuing mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and sweeping tax cuts. Some policymakers fear that this would lead to a tit-for-tat trade war and upend the international rules-based order.

Why it matters: Widespread levies, tax breaks, less migration and higher borrowing costs could hit global output by 0.8 per cent in 2025 and another 1.3 per cent in 2026, according to the IMF. Experts fear this could raise unemployment and increase prices, with one economist predicting a risk of “stagflation”. In the US, Morgan Stanley expects Trump’s tariffs to drag down real GDP growth by 1.4 per cent and boost consumer prices, while Yale University researchers estimate his moves would cost households as much as $7,600.

Here’s what else top policymakers are saying on the sidelines of the meetings in Washington.

Scroll down for more on Trump, including his latest rally in New York and today’s Big Read on his foreign policy agenda. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• UK Budget: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to speak, setting the scene for Wednesday’s fiscal event which will define his government.

• Elections: Georgia’s opposition has called for protests today after preliminary results showed a win for the country’s pro-Russia ruling party. In Bulgaria, exit polls suggest a continuing political impasse when final results come out today.

• Nordic Council: Members of the inter-parliamentary body meet in Reykjavík to discuss security in the Arctic.

• Macron in Morocco: The French president begins a three-day state visit to the former colony.

Hear directly from the presidents of Kenya and Somalia and other leaders at the FT’s Africa Summit starting tomorrow, where they will discuss how to drive sustainable growth across the continent. Register here.

Five more top stories

1. Japan’s ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic party has lost its parliamentary majority in an unexpected rebuke by voters that plunges the country into political uncertainty. The LDP’s worst electoral result in 15 years leaves the party struggling to govern and recently anointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba under pressure to resign.

2. Oil prices fell sharply this morning after Israel’s weekend attack on Iran avoided oil and nuclear facilities and the Islamic republic’s supreme leader signalled a measured reaction to the strikes. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said yesterday that senior officials would determine how Tehran would respond and refrained from issuing direct threats of retaliation.

• More on Iran: A senior adviser to Khamenei told the Financial Times that Tehran was “open” to co-operation with western states, despite accusing the US of “unconditional” support for Israel.

• Israel-Hamas war: A group of major western and Asian nations has expressed “grave concern” over an Israeli bill that would severely curb the UN Palestinian refugee agency’s ability to operate in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

3. Crypto trading venues are expanding rapidly into derivatives, hoping that tougher regulation and the promise of highly leveraged returns will lure cautious investors into the market. Trading in futures and options now account for 71 per cent of all digital asset trading volumes. Here are the exchanges breaking into derivatives.

4. UK lawyers representing wealthy clients are reporting the busiest run-up to a Budget in decades as they manage a rush of activity ahead of some potentially significant tax changes. Concerns are mounting over potential shifts in inheritance and capital gains taxes, with a number of clients already disposing of assets in preparation.

• The FT View: Rachel Reeves must stabilise the economy, pave the way for higher growth and convince financial markets, writes the editorial board.

• Budget Game: Think you can do a better job than Reeves? See how you would fare as UK chancellor in the FT’s game.

5. Donald Trump made a defiant return to New York yesterday at a rally in Madison Square Garden that included Elon Musk and Howard Lutnick. A rapturous crowd greeted the former president as he repeated his core campaign messages, promising an economic “restoration” and clampdown on the “migrant invasion of our country”. Here’s more from Trump’s rally.

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The Big Read

Donald Trump has a radical global agenda for a second term, according to his allies, advisers and would-be aides — from Ukraine and the Middle East to pressurising the US’s friends and foes. The world has good reason to be jittery about his audacious “America first” agenda. One ally said: “Of course the other side wants predictability. Trump is not predictable and we Americans like it.”

We’re also reading . . . 

• Female voters: American women may be the key swing voters of 2024, writes Rana Foroohar, in the same way that less educated white men were in 2016.

• HSBC overhaul: Is the bank’s move to split “east” from “west” dramatic or prosaic? Much may depend on the likes of Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, writes Patrick Jenkins.

• The Wallenbergs: The Swedish family’s $660bn empire has begun transitioning to its sixth generation, with women considered in succession planning for the first time.

• Saudi women: Many freedoms accorded to women elsewhere remain forbidden in the kingdom, but a surge in female labour force participation has emerged as a bright spot.

Chart of the day

The prospect of Donald Trump imposing new tariffs if he wins the US election has hit the shares of export-sensitive European companies such as carmakers and luxury groups, which are already struggling with weak Chinese demand.

Take a break from the news

What would the world’s best chef serve you for €450? An 18-course banquet of “bleeding-edge taste sensations”, according to the FT’s Spain correspondent Barney Jopson. Read his review of Dabiz Muñoz’s DiverXO restaurant in Madrid.