Sen. Susan Collins has Republican super PACs spending hundreds of millions of dollars for her in Maine. Collins spent the Senate debates playing a familiar tune for voters in the state. Collins tried to claim that she was independent, but also, in very Trumpian fashion, refused to call her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court a mistake.
Republicans are facing their worst midterm election environment since 2006, and if the election breaks big for Democrats, 2026 could be the party’s worst midterm defeat in nearly 100 years.
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GOP pollsters, who tend to base their polling on the most favorable turnout model for Republicans, have the race either tied or Collins up by a point. Non-partisan polling has the election anywhere from even to Jackson leading by four points.
Like many other Senate elections in red states where Democrats are competitive, this is a close, close race.
Most of the Democratic candidates trying to flip red Senate seats are going to have to fight tooth and nail, not only against the glut of outside money being spent against them, but also against the habit of voters to elect incumbent Republicans.
Voters in Maine have been electing Susan Collins for decades, but Sen. Collins may have finally met a contest that she couldn’t faux-moderate-bluff her way through.
